Scientists Did Not Recommend a 54% Cut to the Atlantic Menhaden Fishery
Press Release

Scientists Did Not Recommend a 54% Cut to the Atlantic Menhaden Fishery

They provided risk projections for managers to choose, the chosen 20% TAC reduction yields 0% probability of overfishing

Under the 2020 ERP definitions, Atlantic menhaden are not overfished and overfishing is not occurring. For 2023, fecundity is on the order of 1.2 quadrillion eggs (above the ERP fecundity threshold but below the target) and fishing mortality is about 0.26 (above the ERP F-target but still below the ERP F-threshold). The overview also makes clear there is no single "right" ERP; selecting ERP targets and thresholds is a management choice that balances objectives for menhaden and their predators.

The 2025 single-species update applied a lower estimate of natural mortality (M). That change lowers the back-calculated biomass, fecundity, and recruitment across the time series and raises the corresponding fishing mortality (F) estimates, even though the underlying population did not suddenly decline. Because of the revised M, the 2025 assessment's long-term average biomass is about a third lower than the 2022 update's average; this reflects an improved understanding of the stock rather than a real-time drop in the stock itself.

  • The 2025 update shows that the biomass of age-1+ menhaden is just below its 20-year average but has been trending up since 2021.

  • Adult abundance in 2023 was 14.8 billion age-1+ fish, above the average of the past 20 years.

  • Recruitment in 2023 was 44.5 billion age-0 fish, above the average of the past 20 years.

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